2018 NCAA March Madness basketball tournament

Your case deals primarily with the concepts of expected value and binomial distributions. This case will be based upon the 2018 NCAA March Madness basketball tournament that will just ended last week. There typically is a lot of news coverage of the brackets and all the teams playing and who is going to win the whole tournament, or how they did with their picks. The previous president of the United States even releases his picks in probably more coverage then when the budget is rolled out. And we have been fortunate to have our own school participate in the tournament in the past couple of years. In previous years Quicken Loans and Warren Buffet offered to give a billion dollars to anyone who got a perfect bracket (picked every team correctly). On one sheet of paper, I would like you to calculate the total number of points you could receive if you got every selection right, the maximum points that are available during each round, the expected number of points that a person would get for the whole tournament, and how many different brackets you would have to pick in order to guarantee yourself getting all the points (four questions). Please show work where practical and to support your answers. Clearly label each question or answer. You can answer the questions in an executive summary format or list them in order. Please describe how you came to the answer in words and use calculations to support your answer. The descriptions can be simple and composed in one or two sentences. Guidelines: The case must be typed, have your name and class and section, and no alterations can be made with pen or pencil (all questions typed and answered and no alterations to the assignment being turned in).
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MIS 301 Statistical Analysis for Business – Spring 2018, Section 1
CASE Assignment 1
Due April 23, 2018
Overview
The objective of this case is to introduce you to using statistics to solve everyday problems and reinforce
your concepts of expected value and binomial distributions.
Assignment:
Your case deals primarily with the concepts of expected value and binomial distributions. This case will
be based upon the 2018 NCAA March Madness basketball tournament that will just ended last week.
There typically is a lot of news coverage of the brackets and all the teams playing and who is going to
win the whole tournament, or how they did with their picks. The previous president of the United States
even releases his picks in probably more coverage then when the budget is rolled out. And we have
been fortunate to have our own school participate in the tournament in the past couple of years. In
previous years Quicken Loans and Warren Buffet offered to give a billion dollars to anyone who got a
perfect bracket (picked every team correctly).
On one sheet of paper, I would like you to calculate the total number of points you could receive if you
got every selection right, the maximum points that are available during each round, the expected number
of points that a person would get for the whole tournament, and how many different brackets you would
have to pick in order to guarantee yourself getting all the points (four questions). Please show work
where practical and to support your answers. Clearly label each question or answer. You can answer
the questions in an executive summary format or list them in order. Please describe how you came to
the answer in words and use calculations to support your answer. The descriptions can be simple and
composed in one or two sentences.
Guidelines:
•
You must turn in the packet at the beginning of class on Monday April 23rd at 4:00PM. Make sure
it is on time otherwise you will lose 10% of your grade for this assignment if it is late and an
additional 10% for each day late. I will not take any packets after Friday. For each day late it will
be an additional 10% deducted.
•
The case must be typed, have your name and class and section, and no alterations can be made
with pen or pencil (all questions typed and answered and no alterations to the assignment being
turned in).
Good Luck! And enjoy. This should be fun and not stressful. It is a relatively easy case.
Helpful Information:
Games
Name of Round
Each Correct Pick
(4 teams play to get into
32
First Round
1 Point
the main bracket. Those
16
Second Round
2 Points
games don’t count and
8
Sweet 16
3 Points
the scoring begins with
4
Elite 8
8 Points
the 64 team bracket)
2
Final 4
20 Points
1
Championship Game
50 Points
Seeds don’t matter, each team has the same probability of winning as any other team.
Probability for the round
0.5
.05x.05
0.25
Points Per Round
5 points
30 points
Max pts for Round
2 x 5pt = 10
1 x 30pt = 30
40 Max Points Tourney
A
Number of Brackets
2^3=8
1
Expected Points
B
3
.5 x 10pt =
.25 x 30pt =
C
2
5
7.5
E(x) = 12.5
D
Probability for the round
0.5
.05x.05
0.25
0.5×0.5×0.5
0.125
Points Per Round
5 points
20 points
50 Points
Max pts for Round
4 x 5pt= 20
2 x 20pt= 40
1 x 50pt = 50
110 Max Points Tourney
A
1
Number of Brackets
2^7=128
B
5
Expected Points
C
.5 x 20pt =
.25 x 40pt =
.125 x 50pt =
2
D
7
E
3
F
6
G
4
H
E(x) = 26.25
10
10
6.25
Clarification about the first Case:
First, you do not need to know anything about basketball or have to watch any
games. The case is based on an event that is popular at this time of year and I
thought it would be interesting to apply what we have learned in statistics to this
yearly event.
Another way that you can view this Case, would be, 64 people enter a room and
there are 32 tables and 2 people sit at each table. So 32 tables and 2 people at
each table makes a total of 64 people.
Each table, has a coin and they will flip it. You are trying to calculate and figure
out who will win at each table. If you guess right you get the points for that
round, if you guess wrong you don’t get the points.
After each round, we remove half of the tables and each new table will have 2
winners sitting at it. So for the second round, we will have only 16 tables and 32
winners that advanced. Each table will have 2 people sitting at it and we start the
same process over until there is only one person left.
So this Case has 4 questions that need to be answered based on this
information. I am giving you this helpful hint or an alternative way to think about
this so you don’t think it has anything to do with sports or that you have to be
privy to information to answer these questions correct.

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