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Atmosphere  Assignment  
Earth  Science  Lecture  ESC1000  
Matthew  Olney  
Atmosphere  Assignment  
“A  Wacky  Jet  Stream  is  Making  Our  Weather  Severe”  
Scientific  American  December  2014  
Read  “A  Wacky  Jet  Stream  is  Making  Our  Weather  Severe,”  then  answer  the  questions  
below.    Print  your  document  and  submit  a  hard  copy  by  the  deadline  given  in  the  schedule.    
This  article  discusses  the  causes  and  affects  of  the  jet  stream.    The  article  was  published  in  
Scientific  American,  December  2014  written  by  Jeff  Masters  (director  of  meteorology  at  
Weather  Underground).    A  pdf  version  of  the  article  is  in  the  “Assignments”  folder  in  
Canvas:    “A  Wacky  Jet  Stream  is  Making  Our  Weather  Severe”.    It  is  provided  for  this  classes  
use  only  and  must  not  be  re-­-distributed  (see  SA  terms  of  use  policy  link  below).  You  can  also  
access  the  text  only  version  of  this  article  online  via  the  HCC  library  website.      
For  further  reading  also  see:  http://www.bbc.com/news/science-­-environment-­-26023166  
 
1.   The  page  titled  “How  it  Works”,  main  image  of  the  Earth  (viewing  the  northern  
hemisphere  Americas),  shows  the  atmospheric  circulation  pattern  of  the  Earth  in  
both  the  horizontal  and  vertical  sense.      
a.   Red  arrows  show  the  surface  level  winds.    What  are  these  three  wind  belts  
called?    List  them  from  north  to  south  order.  (6  pts.)  
b.   Draw  a  map  view  diagram  of  the  Earth  and  mark  on  and  label  these  wind  
patterns  for  the  northern  hemisphere  only  (divide  the  hemisphere  into  30  
degree  belts  or  zones).  (4  pts.)  
c.   The  diagram  also  indicates  the  circulatory  cells  (Polar,  Ferrell,  and  Hadley)  –  
movement  of  air  in  the  vertical  sense.    What  are  the  three  basic  
climate/vegetation  patterns  that  result  at  the  boundaries  between  these  
cells  at  the  equator,  at  30  degrees  north  and  at  60  degrees  north?  (6  pts.)  
2.   “Why  waviness  Changes:  Two  Possibilities”  –  numbered  1  and  2  (red  numerals  in  
yellow  circles)  section.      
Atmosphere  Assignment  
Earth  Science  Lecture  ESC1000  
Matthew  Olney  
a.   Panel  1,  “Atmospheric  Oscillations”  considers  natural  explanations  for  
changes  in  the  jet  stream  based  on  changes  in  what?  (4  pts.)  
b.   Panel  2,  “Arctic  Amplification”  considers  the  role  of  sea-­-ice.    How  does  the  
amount  of  sea-­-ice  cover  (in  the  Arctic)  effect  the  atmosphere?    (6  pts.)  
c.   Is  the  reduction  in  sea-­-ice  likely  to  lead  to  further  sea-­-ice  loss  –  why?  (6  pts.)  
3.   The  upper  right  section  of  Panel  1  “Arctic  Oscillation”  illustrates  a  positive  phase  and  
a  negative  phase.    
a.   What  distinguishes  the  two  phases  –  i.e.  what  is  different?  (6  pts.)  
4.   If  the  warming  trend  in  global  average  temperatures  continues  what  will  the  likely  
effect  be  on  the  jet  stream?  (2  pts.)  
5.   According  to  the  article  what  is  the  greatest  threat  to  humans  as  a  result  of  our  
changing  weather  patterns?    Why  is  this  considered  the  greatest  threat?  (6  pts.)  
6.   What  does  waviness  of  the  jet  stream  remind  you  of?    Something  we  learned  about  
in  the  hydrosphere  section  of  the  course.    What  is  the  consistent  factor  between  the  
two  phenomena?    (4  pts)  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Scientific  American  terms  of  use  policy  is  available  at:  
http://www.scientificamerican.com/page/terms-­-of-­-use/  
 
2
wind-whipped lake
waves froze this lighthouse
in Michigan during a harsh
winter storm.
68 Scientific American, December 2014
sad1214Mast5p.indd 68
10/22/14 2:25 PM
c l i m at e
the jet
Extreme summers and winters
stream is
of the past four years
getting
THOMAS ZAKOWSKI Landov
could become the norm
weird
By Jeff Masters
December 2014, ScientificAmerican.com 69
sad1214Mast3p.indd 69
10/21/14 3:17 PM
F
Je? Masters is director of meteorology at the Weather
Underground, which he co-founded in 1995, and specializes
in severe weather forecasting. He also writes WunderBlog,
one of the most popular weather blogs on the Internet.
ROM NOVEMBER 2013 THROUGH JANUARY 2014, THE JET STREAM TOOK ON A REMARKABLY EXTREME AND PERSISTENT
shape over North America and Europe. This global river of eastward-flowing winds high in the atmosphere dipped farther south than usual across the eastern U.S., allowing the notorious “polar vortex” of
frigid air swirling over the Arctic to plunge southward, putting the eastern two thirds of the country into
a deep freeze. Ice cover on the Great Lakes reached its second-greatest extent on record, and two crippling snow-and-ice storms shut down Atlanta for multiple days.
At the same time, a stubborn ridge of high pressure hunkered
down over California, creating the warmest winter on record
there. Although the balminess may sound nice, the resulting
drought became the worst since record keeping began in the
late 1800s, causing billions of dollars in agricultural losses.
The jet stream’s contortions also pummeled Europe, where a
succession of intense storms led to additional billions of dollars
of damage. In England and Wales the winter was the wettest
since at least 1766. Much of the rest of Europe basked in exceptional warmth: Norway suffered unprecedented January wildfires, and Winter Olympics officials in Sochi, Russia, struggled
with melting ski slopes. In May nearly one third of the entire
country of Bosnia was flooded by a massive, swirling rainstorm.
Ordinarily the jet stream resembles a band of air blowing
across the middle latitudes. As we see on television weather
forecasts, it often has mild bends from north to south and back
to north again, looking somewhat like a sine wave on an oscilloscope. The bends are called planetary or Rossby waves and
typically progress across the U.S. in three to five days. They
deliver much of the day-to-day weather we experience.
During the 2013–2014 winter, however, the waves became amplified with gigantic, steep sides, resembling an erratic electrocardiogram printout. This configuration of winds also moved
across the earth much more slowly than usual, at times stopping
in place for weeks and bringing remarkably long periods of uncommon weather. A May study led by Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang of
Utah State University found the jet stream pattern over North
America during that time was the most extreme ever recorded.
Was the radical jet stream an anomaly? Apparently not, because it seems to be happening more and more. In 2010 Russia
baked through its most oppressive heat wave in written history,
one that killed more than 55,000 people. At the same time, intense rains deluged Pakistan, its most expensive natural disaster
on record. In 2011 Oklahoma endured the hottest summer any
American state has ever had. U.S. drought conditions in 2012
were the most extensive since the 1930s.
The bends in the jet stream during those particular events
shared a common feature, according to an April 2013 paper by
scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
in Germany, led by Vladimir Petoukhov. The usually eastwardmoving waves “ground to a halt and were greatly amplified,”
two of the authors wrote in a blog post about their research. In
some cases, the bends remained stuck for days or even months
at a time. The scientists also showed that the extreme configurations were twice as common during summers from 2001 to
2012 as they were during summers of the prior 22 years.
As Bob Dylan sang, “You don’t need a weatherman to know
which way the wind blows.” Something is clearly up with the jet
stream, and it is not hard to see the probable reason why. The
base state of our climate has changed dramatically over the past
150 years, and that change is starting to alter the jet stream’s
behavior. Atmospheric levels of heat-trapping carbon dioxide,
for example, have increased more than 40 percent, primarily
because of the burning of coal, oil and natural gas. The extent of
summer sea ice in the Arctic is down nearly 50 percent since
1900, affecting heat flow in the atmosphere and ocean. Solar
energy reflecting off the earth’s surface has changed significantly
because we have modified more than half of the planet’s landscape with crops, pastures and cities. Massive clouds of sunlightreflecting and sunlight-absorbing soot and pollution belch forth
IN BRIEF
Severe weather outbreaks have occurred in the past four years when the jet
stream has become contorted into extreme positions.
Extended bouts of outlandish weather
have taken place when the jet stream
has become stalled in these shapes for
long periods.
Some scientists assert that the leading cause of a weird jet stream is the
loss of Arctic sea ice, although other experts disagree.
Either way a more extreme jet stream
will mean greater droughts, ?oods, heat
waves and deep freezes in many parts
of the world.
70 Scientific American, December 2014
sad1214Mast3p.indd 70
10/21/14 3:17 PM
Science Source
High-Altitude clouds, as seen from the Space Shuttle, gather along the jet stream over eastern Canada. North is toward
the bottom of the image, where Cape Breton Island is visible ( center ). The jet’s speed can top 300 kilometers per hour.
from power plants, vehicles, buildings and industries. A huge
ozone hole disrupts upper-level winds over the Antarctic.
Humans have kicked the climate system hard, and physics
demands that the earth’s fundamental weather patterns change
as a result. Indeed, Wang and his colleagues concluded that the
jet stream’s configuration most likely could not have grown so
strange without the influence of human-caused global warming.
The danger is that climate is not linear. A modest level of global warming can suddenly create a step change to a new regime
with wildly different weather. Climate scientists are in­­tensely
de­­bating whether climate as a whole and the jet stream in particular have crossed a tipping point into a new long-term state.
They are also debating a controversial theory put forth by the
Potsdam researchers and others that says that the changes in
the jet stream stem largely from events occurring in the fastestwarming portion of the planet—the Arctic.
If indeed the jet stream is entering a new state, that bodes ill
for civilization. An August paper published in Nature Climate
Change by James Screen of the University of Exeter in England
and Ian Simmonds of the University of Melbourne in Australia
went so far as to pinpoint the potential effects. ( Scientific American is part of Nature Publishing Group.) If jet stream waves “are
amplified in response to anthropogenic [human-caused] climate
change, as has been proposed,” they wrote, “our results suggest
that this would preferentially increase the probabilities of heat
waves in western North America and central Asia, cold waves in
eastern North America, droughts in central North America,
Europe and central Asia, and wet extremes in western Asia.”
This new normal would mean more terrible summer droughts
for midwesterners. Winters featuring strings of snowstorms like
the 2010 “snowmageddon” that closed Washington, D.C., would
blast eastern U.S. residents more often. And people worldwide
would see food prices go up, a consequence of intense and persistent droughts in central North America, Europe and Central Asia.
Natural Variations
Climate change would revise the jet stream indirectly by act­­ing
on big forces in the atmosphere that ultimately shape it. The
ever present river of wind, nine to 14 kilometers high, circles
the globe in both hemispheres and acts as a guide along which
precipitation-bearing low-pressure systems ride. The jet stream
typically has two branches: a polar jet that acts as the boundary
between cold air near the poles and warm air closer to the equator and a less vigorous subtropical jet that lies closer to the equator. Henceforth, when I discuss the jet stream, I mean the dominant polar jet.
That jet’s latitude rises and falls a bit with the seasons: it is
typically over the central U.S. in winter and near the U.S.-Cana-
December 2014, ScientificAmerican.com 71
sad1214Mast3p.indd 71
10/21/14 3:17 PM
H OW I T WO R K S
A Radical Jet Stream Delivers Extreme Weather
Two jets of high-altitude wind blow around the earth in each hemisphere. When bends in the polar jet become magni?ed
(left-hand page), abnormally warm or cold air can wallop large regions of a continent. The bends can also get stuck that
way for weeks, causing droughts, ?oods, heat waves and deep freezes. Two leading theories can explain the big bends
(right-hand page), one driven by climate change and one linked to either climate change or natural variability.
Jet Streams Form
Because the equator gets more solar energy than the poles, hot air rises there,
hits the stratosphere and spreads toward the poles. The earth’s spin de?ects the
air into three major, interlocking atmospheric circulation cells in each hemisphere.
Jet streams arise along the cell boundaries to equalize pressure di?erences.
Stratosphere
Waviness Brings Heat Waves and Deep Freezes
When mild bends in the polar jet stream become ampli?ed (wavy blue arrow),
huge warm-air masses can surge much farther north than usual, and cold-air
masses—such as the winter polar vortex—can plunge far to the south. The bends
typically progress across the U.S. in three to ?ve days, delivering our daily weather.
Air circulation
Subtropical jet
Polar jet
15 kilometers
10
Hadley cell
Equator
Ferrell cell
30° N
5
Polar cell
60° N
0
North Pole
Surface
winds
CIRCULATION CELLS
Polar cell
Ferrell cell
Hadley cell
ABNORMALLY
WARM AND DRY
60° N
NOR
H
MA
L P
OLA
R J
ET
STRE
AM
ABNORMALLY
COLD AND WET
ST
RE
AM
L
AM
P
LIF
SUBTRO
H
L
IE
D
P
A
OL
R
JE
T
Occasionally the
bends, known as
Rossby waves, can get
stuck in place, locking
in long periods of
extreme weather
Solar rays
PI CA
30° N
L JET
STREAM
M
Absorbed
heat
High-pressure center
Low-pressure center
Long-Term Rami?cations
If the polar jet stream has crossed a tipping
point to a new state in which big bends
become common, the U.S. may see more
heat waves in the west, cold waves in the
east and drought in the central states.
Equator
sad1214Mast3p.indd 72
10/21/14 3:17 PM
Why Waviness Changes: Two Possibilities
Positive phase is linked
to a large pressure
di?erence, which helps
the jet stream take
a straighter path,
and to a strong polar
vortex, which keeps
cold air north
L
H
Jet stream
Negative phase is linked
to a small pressure
di?erence, which
weakens the jet stream
so big bends are more
likely, and weakens the
polar vortex, allowing
cold air to drift south
La Niña
Neutral
El Niño
L
Arctic Amplification
The Arctic is warming up two to three times as fast as the midlatitudes. Disappearing
sea ice (below) is a major reason: more exposed water absorbs extra solar heat in
summer and reradiates it in winter, raising air temperature in the polar cell faster
than the rise in the Ferrell cell (right). The declining di?erence between cells makes
a negative Arctic Oscillation and wavy jet stream (above right) more likely.
1979
Faster autumn winds
2012
About
1 degree C
warmer
Slower autumn winds
Ferrell cell
Less ice, less re?ection
n
Arctic Ocea
Less Ice, Weaker Winds
From 1979 to 2012 the minimum area
of Arctic sea ice dropped 40 percent,
and autumn winds high over North
America slowed 10 percent (graphs).
Slower winds are associated with big,
problematic bends in the jet stream.
Hadley cell
More heat a
and reradiatebsorbed
d later
Millions
of square
kilometers
6
Meters
per second
14
Decreased sea-ice area
(September 1979–2012)
5
12
3
2
Slower high-altitude winds
(Autumn 1979–2012)
13
4
11
1980
1990
Illustration by Juan Velasco (5W Infographics), Research by Amanda Hobbs
sad1214Mast3p.indd 73
Polar cell
About 3
degrees C
warmer
Re?ected light
More ice, more re?ection
L
H
Arctic Oscillation
Week-to-week changes in sea-level
pressure between the Arctic and
midlatitudes cause this phenomenon;
factors not fully understood shift it
between positive and negative phases.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation
This cycle in tropical atmospheric pressure has two phases:
El Niño brings warmer Paci?c Ocean water eastward, moving
the jet stream south; La Niña brings cooler water, moving
the jet north. Recent, large di?erences in the phases, linked
to a wavy jet, may be natural or driven by climate change.
2
Polar
vortex
2000
2010
1980
1990
2000
2010
SOURCE: NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION AND EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY (bottom right charts, wind
data), NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTER (bottom right charts, sea ice data), COMPILED BY DR. JENNIFER FRANCIS (bottom right charts)
1
Atmospheric Oscillations
Natural phenomena in the atmosphere can alter the jet stream’s path. Two prime
suspects are the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation.
December 2014, ScientificAmerican.com 73
10/21/14 3:18 PM
dian border in summer. The flow, however, is chaotic, and large
Rossby waves are always present. In the Northern Hemisphere,
when the jet stream bulges northward as a ridge of high pressure,
warm air flows up from south to north. Where the jet loops to the
south as a trough of low pressure, cold air spills southward.
The jet stream is created by three major interlocking cells of
circulating air over each hemisphere [ see box on two preceding
pages ]. Al­­though the cells help to shape the jet stream, other
forces in the sky can contort it further. The atmosphere actually resonates because of energy from the sun, the shape and
location of the continents and ocean currents, the presence of
mountain ranges, and the amount of heat-trapping greenhouse
gases and re­­flective dust in the air. Just as a guitar resonates
differently when various strings are plucked, as these factors
change, the atmosphere resonates with multiple tones, called
teleconnection patterns. These na …
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