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KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS
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What is Keynesian Economics?
Keynesian Economics refers to a theory that spending more money would help
stimulate a stagnant economy. Keynes argued that spending less would generate less
output. With an aggressive approach, Keynes believed spending more would give
suppliers a more positive outlook on the direction of a particular company; therefore,
creating more output and revenue. Keynes refused to accept the theory that cutting back
on wages and interest rates would hurt the economy.
“Keynes stated that if investment exceeds saving, there will be inflation. If saving
exceeds venture there will be recession” (“Keynesian Economics in a Nutshell”). Keynes
believed that when the leaders of a particular economy act reserved and pessimistic, it
will lead to turmoil and economic failure. However, when a particular economic leader
promotes aggressiveness and confidence, suppliers will buy into the notion (Thomas &
Paolo, 2006)
During the Obama administration, the economy was overly aggressive. Numerous
times, the United States has tried to “spend” its way out of a recession, unsuccessfully. In
2008, Keynesian Economics was as exuberant as ever before. Since the Obama
administration started in January of 2009, the national deficit has more than tripled. As an
employee of a mortgage company, Keynesian economics have impacted myself in a
major way. Servicing loans originated between the years of 2008-2010 generally have an
estimated loan life of over 30 years, an interest rate of >25%, and a payment to household
income ratio of at least 2:1, meaning for every household with an income of $1,000, their
payment is at least $500. Some ratios are even at an astonishing1.2:1, meaning for every
KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS
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$1,000 of household income, their mortgage payment is $800. Due to the unstable
conditions of some of the loans, they have gone into foreclosure or have been sold.
Keynesian Economics may work as a short-term solution but has never worked longterm.
When there is a low demand for goods, then businesses are not going to be hiring
a lot of workers. When people are more willing to invest in companies, then more
products will be produced. Unfortunately not many people are willing to invest when
they’re being taxed so high. Keynesian Economics believes that the government can play
a huge role in reviving the employment rates by altering the tax policies. With more
investors, higher production and subsequently higher demand, the unemployment rates
would drop. Keynesian Economics looked at the direct correlation between the supply,
demand and price.
But when you have a lower than capacity economy, there is only going to be an
increase in production and prices, but not demand. This means there is going to be max
production, but small sales because of the increased prices of products. When this is the
case the business can’t keep hiring more people because they’re sales are down. That is
why Keynesian Economics suggests a change in the fiscal and monetary policies of the
government because they are only creating more economic problems. A new set of
policies will stimulate growth and thus sales.
The ideas of Keynesian Economics has not been around for a while, but has just
recently been revisited by many who are concerned with the employment rates. Countries
looking to adopt monetary policies that will create a stabilized economy are looking at
KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS
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the ideas of Keynes. Many believe if there could be exchange rate regimes that would
prevent the fluctuation of exchange rates, then macroeconomic stability could be found
Proverbs 22:7 says, “The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of
the lender (ESV). The United States has become enslaved to other countries around the
world. The national deficit has tripled since the beginning of 2009 and continues to
worsen by the day. We, as a country, have been enslaved to money. The Bible also tells
us in Romans 6 that we are no longer enslaved to sin. The Bible also tells us money is the
root of all evil. Evil is anything contrary to the nature of God. Therefore, being enslaved
to money is a sin. Whether it is something as simple as being enslaved to your checking
account, or being something as major as being enslaved to a mortgage payment, Jesus
should reign free over your life and this country.
How have the economists’ views on Keynesian economics changed over time?
Milton Friedman was a Keynesian theory supporter during the year 1941-1943.
According to (Andrew Beattie, 2012) he changed his mind later on because he think that
Keynesian perspective has ignore the impact of money supply, the importance of
monetary policy on economic cycles and inflation. In Friedman’s article, “Quantity
Theory of Money” and “The role of monetary policy”, he published the Quantity Theory
of Money and the Expectations Augmented Phillips Curve theory. The ideas that he
wants to deliver in these articles are; control the money supply to control inflation and
explain the breakdown of the Phillips Curve in the 1970s, which distinguish from
Keynesian theory.
Robert Emerson Lucas, Jr also opposes with Keynesian economics. He point out
that, first, full employment will never happen, second Keynes has ignore the role of
KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS
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market mechanisms and public reaction to economic policy but too focus on government
intervention in the economy. And lastly, Keynes’s view of economic has ignored the
individual decision. According to Lucas, “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critiques”
p.41. He said that any changes in policy will bring a negative result by changing the
structure of the econometric models and problems will occur when private agent behavior
depends on government policy rules.
Paul Robin Krugman is agreeing with Keynes’s economic view. According to
Paul Krugman (2011), he thinks that the key issue of economic nowadays was how to
increase demands which are one of the views of Keynes. In Paul Krugman’s (2008) book,
The Return of Depression Economics and Crisis, he did an in-depth research about the
Mexican crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis, and found out that the key question is
how to create a sufficient demand. Thus he came out with his new trade theory. He
explained why countries continue to produce things that they did not have a comparative
advantage to produce in this theory.
Paul Marlor Sweezy has a different view of economic with Keynes. He found out
that Keynes theory can’t help to understand the social trend and the major incident
happen in 20th century but Marxism can. In year 1938 June, he publish the journal The
Review of Economic studies and imperfect competition to explain the role of
opportunities in the willpower of supply and demand and the delinquent of economic
immobility.
Is Keynesian economics dead today?
Keynesian economics is not dead today. Keynes’s theory is still being taught in
most major universities. “Keynesianism” as it is commonly used. John Maynard
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KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS
Keynes’s brilliant insights about the macroeconomic remain valid it’s because Keynes
was a major contributor to the understanding economics. The Prime Minister of Japan,
Shinzo Abe had advocated “Abenomics” for economic recovery and growth. Shino Abe
has used classic Keynesian economic theory by spending a lot of money for recovery
after Fukushima earthquake in 2012. Shino Abe ordered government to extra spend about
$114 billion (US dollar), which will go toward infrastructure projects with a focus on
building bridges, school, and earthquake defenses reinforced. Below graph shows Japan
government spending.
Figure 1: Japan Government Spending Statistic
The former President of United States, George W. Bush used expansionary
economic rule to fight recessions by encouraging economic growth. To address the 2001
recession, President Bush launched income tax cuts had reduced the burden of American
families and encouraged businesses to grow and invest.
KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS
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Figure 2: US Federal Spending percentage in pie chart.
Source from:
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/year_spending_2014USbf_15bs2n#usgs302
The Malaysia Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak, introduced the New
Economic Model with reforms to create a business environment conducive to economic
growth, development and investment. The Malaysian government expects to spend
RM160 billion on rail-related projects moving forward to 2020. It is expected to cost
between RM80 billion and RM90 billion and the yet-to-be finalized Malaysia-Singapore
high speed railway. Adding that, the MRT project alone is estimated to create about
130,000 jobs.
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KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS
References
Kelly, M. (2012). Top 5 Causes of Great Depression. Retrieved October 5, 2014, from
About Education:
Paul Krugman. (2005). Introduction by Paul Krugman to The General Theory of
Employment, Interest, and Money, by John Maynard Keynes. Retrieved October
5, 2014. http://www.pkarchive.org/economy/GeneralTheoryKeynesIntro.html
Paul Krugman. (2011, June 21). Mr. Keynes and the moderns, retrieved October 5, 2014,
from VOX: http://www.voxeu.org/article/mr-keynes-and-moderns
Thomas A.Lubik, Paolo Surico. (2006, July). The Lucas Critique And The Stability of
Empirical Models. Retrieved October 5,2014 from ClevelandFed:
https://www.clevelandfed.org/research/conferences/2006/november3/lubik.pdf
http://americanhistory.about.com/od/greatdepression/tp/greatdepression.htm
Vitez, O.. Difference between Classical and Keynesian Economics. Retrieved October 5,
2014, from Smallbusiness: http://smallbusiness.chron.com/differences-betweenclassical-keynesian-economics-3897.html
KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS
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