Purpose: The primary goal of this weekly summative assignment is to explore some of the most important concepts and paradigms used in the study of international relations (IR). In this first week of class, you will utilize major IR theories along with the Prisoners Dilemma paradigm to analyze one of the most long-standing and perplexing international issues, an arms race.Prepare: Review the Introduction and Chapter 1 of the course text. In addition, read the assigned article, China’s Double-Digit Defense Growth: What It Means for a Peaceful RisReflect: The study of international relations often involves trying to describe, explain, and predict global interactions using various theoretical perspectives. Importantly, our ability to describe, explain, and predict accurately how states react to military competition, often described as arms races, is critical for expanding our understanding of global politics. Consequently, the ability not only to analyze arms races between states using established theories of international relations but also to explain these interactions using the Prisoners Dilemma paradigm are critical skills that all political scientists must have in order to become proficient in their chosen field of study.Write: In your assignment, complete the following:
Discuss how the article illustrates a prisoners dilemma.
Describe the realist, liberal, and identity perspectives reflected in the article.
Explain the best course of action for the U.S., using the Prisoners Dilemma paradigm as a guide.Must be at least two pages (not including title and reference pages) and formatted according to APA style Must include a separate title page with the following:
Title of paper
Course name and number
Must use at least three appropriate sources:
These could include the article, the course text, and any of the required or recommended resources for this week.
You can also include additional resourcesMust document all sources in APA styleMust include an introductory paragraph with a succinct thesis statement.
Must include a conclusion that summarizes the main points and restates the thesis.
Must include a separate references page that is formatted according to APA style
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China’s Double-Digit Defense Growth
What It Means for a Peaceful Rise
by Richard A. Bitzinger
FOREIGN AFFAIRS, MARCH 19, 2015
China has done it again. In early March, it released its defense budget for 2015, and as in
almost every year for over almost two decades, it increased its military expenditure by
double--digit percentages. This year, the Chinese defense budget will rise by
10.1 percent, to roughly $145 billion. And it seems likely that the trend will continue,
much to the concern of Washington and regional capitals.
Already, China is the second--biggest military spender in the world, having surpassed
the United Kingdom in 2008. Chinas new budget for the Peoples Liberation Army
(PLA) is more than three times those of other big spenders such as France, Japan, and
the United Kingdom, and nearly four times that of its rising Asian rival, India. It is also
the only country besides the United States to have a triple--digit defense budget (in
billions of U.S. dollars).
This level of spending is all the more remarkable given where China started. In 1997,
Chinese military expenditures totaled only about $10 billion, roughly on par with
Taiwan and significantly less than that of Japan and South Korea. Beginning that year,
however, Chinas defense budget began to rise. There were two economic factors that
made this growth possible. First, the countrys economy soared; in 1997, defense
spending made up less than two percent of GDP, which remains roughly the same share
today, at least according to Beijing. Second, low inflation rates over the past two
decades have meant that real growth in defense spending has nearly matched nominal
growth; even the most conservative estimate of actual growth rates (accounting for
inflation) reveal a five--fold real increase in military expenditures since 1997.
What is particularly striking about the growth in defense spending over the last two
decades is that it has almost always outpaced GDP growth. Between 1998 and 2007,
Chinas economy grew at an average annual rate of 12.5 percent, while its defense
spending increased at an average of 15.9 percent per annum. Given that the economy is
likely to grow by only seven percent in 2015, and its defense spending is growing at
double digits, the disconnect between economic performance and defense spending is
becoming more pronounced.
Comparing China’s Military Spending and GDP Growth Rates (Foreign Affairs)
Further, it is commonly assumed by many in the West that the official defense budget
does not provide a full picture of Chinese military spending and that the central
government hides expenses for certain itemsfor example research and development,
arms imports, and subsidies to defense industriesin other parts of its overall budget.
Estimates of additional, off--the--books spending range from 35 percent to 50 percent of
total defense expenditures, based on estimates by IHS Janes and the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute, respectively. A few years ago, the U.S. Defense
Department asserted that Chinas true defense budget could be as much as double the
official figure; in fact, it has since stopped trying to figure out off--the--books spending.
Indeed, the exercise in guesstimating actual Chinese military expenditures has
become increasingly irrelevant. With an official military budget approaching
$150 billion, the PLA has all the on--the--books money it needs to underwrite a very
aggressive military modernization program, and if the military wants more, Beijing
appears more than ready to provide it. There is, quite simply, no reason for Beijing to
conceal actual military spending, at least the overall figure.
China is still opaque, with some reason, about how it allocates its defense budget. The
country has never released separate figures for its ground forces, navy, or air force.
Chinese defense white papers (released every two years, starting in 1998) once broke
down spending by personnel, operations and support, and equipment (which
presumably includes weapons procurement and defense research and development).
But that stopped in 2009.
Still, a few predictions can be made about the breakdown of this years defense
spending. The white papers consistently revealed a near--even one--third split of funding
between personnel, operations and support, and equipment. Since these ratios have
remained more or less constant since the late 1990s, it is reasonable to say the same
breakdown applies today. That means any increases in spending are still likely to be
broken down equally among these three categories.
As a result of this equal division in spending, Chinas expenditures on equipment are
particularly large. In 1997, for example, spending on equipment totaled about $3 billion,
or roughly 32 percent of the overall Chinese defense budget. In 2009 (the last year
Beijing provided categorizations of its spending data), equipment still hovered near
32 percent of the total military budget of $58.8 billion. If this roughly one--third
percentage rate holds for the 2015 budget, then PLA expenditures for equipment this
year could be somewhere in the neighborhood of $48 billion. In comparison, Japan
spends about $8.3 billion on equipment and research and development; the United
Kingdom, roughly $10 billion; and France, $12 billion. Chinas spending on equipment
would likely include as much as $10 billion in military research and development
spending, which is more than double the amount that all of Western Europe spends,
In fact, Chinas budget for equipment alone is greater than the total defense budgets of
Japan, India, or any other AsiaPacific rival. Not surprisingly, from roughly the mid--
1990s to the mid--2000s, China became one of the worlds largest arms importers:
buying advanced fighter jets, submarines, destroyers, and transport planes from Russia,
missiles from Ukraine, and drones from Israel. Since the early 2000s, China has begun to
phase out arms imports in favor of homegrown weapons. Fueled by an explosion in
research and development spending and the injection of new funds to modernize arms
factories, Chinas domestic defense industry has begun turning out scores of new, very
advanced weapons systems. Over the past decade, the PLA has produced hundreds of
locally built J--10 and J--11 fighters (copied from the Russian Su--27); dozens of modern
destroyers, frigates, and submarines; several types of new missile systems (including a
unique anti--ship ballistic missile); and, of course, an aircraft carrier (acquired from
Ukraine but rebuilt almost entirely in China).
Meanwhile, the PLA has still had plenty of money left over to increase soldiers salaries,
construct new barracks and other facilities, and improve the rigor of military training,
such as preparing for modern, integrated joint operations.
Because of this significant expansion in its military power, it is perhaps not surprising
that Beijing has grown more secretive and more defensive in recent years in revealing
its spending breakdowns. On the one hand, the Chinese government is presumably loath
to disclose the details of its military expenditures because foreign intelligence
organizations could exploit that information. Or, more likely, it simply finds it too
uncomfortable to reveal its gargantuan procurement and defense research and
development budgetsecond only to that of the United Statesespecially given the
lengths that Beijing has gone to advance its peaceful development policies.
Beijings refusal to reveal information is matched by an increasingly stiff--necked and
uncompromising defense of its military spending. In a spate of editorials, the Chinese
government has stood by the recent increase, arguing that it is moderate and
reasonable, and part of the new normal in the PLAs ongoing modernization. An
article by the state controlled Xinhua news agency asserted that Western countries
want to keep China a military dwarf, and that through tinted glasses, some Western
countries and media could see nothing but threat regarding Chinas military budget. In
the east, China claimed that its security was being increasingly challenged by Japan, a
recidivist trouble maker with surging military ambition.
In almost the same breath, Beijing argues that its military expenditures are still
relatively meager. The latest rise in defense spending is the lowest increase in five
years, officials claim, and military spending still accounts for less than 1.5 percent of the
countrys GDP. They also assert that in terms of per capita military spending, Chinas
defense budget is still only one--fifth of Japans, one--ninth of the United Kingdoms, and
less than one--twentieth of the United States. Current Chinese military spending is by
no means a big one, Xinhua declares, for a country that has the worlds largest
population and a territory of over 9 million square kilometers to defend.
Much of what China says is true but misleading. For instance, this years 10.1 percent
rise, although on the low side, is otherwise more or less in line with Chinas defense
spending increases over the past two decades. That could mean that China is trying to
use a small dip in its spending growth to downplay its military spending overall, in
order to head off criticism that it has issued the largest defense budget in Chinas
history, and to bolster Beijings peaceful development approach.
The simple fact is that Beijing is committed, at least publically, to sizable defense
spending increases because Chinas leadership, from the hardliner to the reformer, is
united around the central idea that the PLA must become a modern, twenty--first
century fighting force.
Moreover, this view appears to be widely shared among the general populace. A recent
poll undertaken by the Australian think tank Perth USAsia Center found that the
Chinese, by a solid majority, backed Beijings claims over the disputed islands in the
East and South China Seas. In addition, a sizable number (greater than 70 percent)
believed that the PLA could prevail in any conflict in those regions, even if the United
States were to intervene (although most felt it would not be in Chinas interest to
pursue a military solution.)
This support is driven by two factors: growing nationalism and the governments active
promotion of historical victimization and ongoing vulnerabilityparticularly through
its 20--year--long patriotic education campaign, which downplays the faults of the
countrys leaders and emphasizes the brutality committed against China by evil
foreign powers. As one Chinese official, when defending the most recent defense budget
increase, put it, our lesson from historythose who fall behind will get bulliedthis is
something we will never forget. In this regard, too, a modernized PLA dovetails well
with Chinese leader Xi Jinpings China dream, a vision of a rejuvenated and
revitalized China. If China wants to be a great power, it requires a powerful military.
Consequently, the rich nation, strong army ideal resonates with much of Chinas
Military Expenditures in Billions of U.S. Dollars (Foreign Affairs)
What does a rising Chinese defense budget mean for the United States? Certainly the
United States continues to be the bigger spender, outpacing China on defense by a factor
of four to one. Moreover, by nearly every metricquantity and quality of ? …
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