NBER Business Cycles

In class, we used data from The Great Depression to the present to calculate a few statistics on recessions.Using the same data sheet, for the expansionary phase of the business cycle (trough to peak) calculate:in months…MinimumMaximumRangeMeanMedianModeUsing these statistics and the last business cycle trough, predict when the next peak will be. Caveat: this is not an approved way to forecast, but it will generate discussion.
kcarlson_0151_nber_chronology.xlsx

Unformatted Attachment Preview

Don't use plagiarized sources. Get Your Custom Essay on
NBER Business Cycles
Just from $13/Page
Order Essay

From: http://nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html
as of 9 November 2016
Econ 102
Duration, Duration, Duration, Duration,
peak to trough to peak to trough to
trough
peak
peak
trough
Peak month
Trough month
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
August 1957
April 1960
December 1969
November 1973
January 1980
July 1981
July 1990
March 2001
December 2007
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
May 1954
April 1958
February 1961
November 1970
March 1975
July 1980
November 1982
March 1991
November 2001
June 2009
43
13
8
11
10
8
10
11
16
6
16
8
8
18
Macroeconomics
21
50
80
37
45
39
24
106
36
58
12
92
120
73
34
93
93
45
56
49
32
116
47
74
18
108
128
81
64
63
88
48
55
47
34
117
52
64
28
100
128
91
Kevin L. Carlson
1854-2009 (33 cycles)
1854-1919 (16 cycles)
1919-1945 (6 cycles)
1945-2009 (11 cycles)
17.5
21.6
18.2
11.1
38.7
26.6
35.0
58.4
56.4
48.9
53.0
68.5
56.2
48.2
53.2
69.5
Note: Month numbers start in January 1800
Econ 102
Macroeconomics
Kevin L. Carlson
Peak
Trough
Quarterly dates
are in parentheses
Contracti Expansio
on
n
Peak
Previous
trough
to
to
Cycle
Trough
from
Previous
December 1854 (IV)
Trough

this peak

Trough

December 1858 (IV)
18
30
48
October 1860(III) June 1861 (III)
8
22
30
April 1865(I)
December 1867 (I)
32
46
78
June 1869(II)
December 1870 (IV)
18
18
36
October 1873(III) March 1879 (I)
65
34
99
March 1882(I)
May 1885 (II)
38
36
74
March 1887(II)
April 1888 (I)
13
22
35
July 1890(III)
May 1891 (II)
10
27
37
January 1893(I)
June 1857 (II)
June 1894 (II)
17
20
37
December 1895(IV)June 1897 (II)
18
18
36
June 1899(III)
18
24
42
September 1902(IV)August 1904 (III)
23
21
44
May 1907(II)
June 1908 (II)
13
33
46
January 1910(I)
January 1912 (IV)
24
19
43
January 1913(I)
December 1914 (IV)
23
12
35
August 1918(III)
March 1919 (I)
7
44
51
January 1920(I)
July 1921 (III)
18
10
28
May 1923(II)
July 1924 (III)
December 1900 (IV)
14
22
36
October 1926(III) November 1927 (IV)
13
27
40
August 1929(III)
March 1933 (I)
43
21
64
May 1937(II)
June 1938 (II)
13
50
63
February 1945(I)
October 1945 (IV)
8
80
88
November 1948(IV)October 1949 (IV)
11
37
48
July 1953(II)
May 1954 (II)
10
45
55
August 1957(III)
April 1958 (II)
8
39
47
April 1960(II)
February 1961 (I)
10
24
34
December 1969(IV)November 1970 (IV)
11
106
117
November 1973(IV)March 1975 (I)
16
36
52
January 1980(I)
July 1980 (III)
6
58
64
July 1981(III)
November 1982 (IV)
16
12
28
8
92
100
8
120
128
18
73
91
July 1990(III)
March 1991(I)
March 2001(I) November 2001 (IV)
December 2007 (IV)
June 2009 (II)
Cycle
Peak from
Previous
Peak
–40
54
50
52
101
60
40
30
35
42
39
56
32
36
67
17
40
41
34
93
93
45
56
49
32
116
47
74
18
108
128
81
5
8
6
5
8
6
6
5
8
9
5
10
4
8
8
7
8
4
8
7
4
9
9
5
7
6
9
9
8
5
5
6
9
June
October
April
June
October
March
March
July
January
December
June
September
May
January
January
August
January
May
October
August
May
February
November
July
August
April
December
November
January
July
July
March
December
6
10
4
6
10
3
3
7
1
12
6
9
5
1
1
8
1
5
10
8
5
2
11
7
8
4
12
11
1
7
7
3
12
1857
1860
1865
1869
1873
1882
1887
1890
1893
1895
1899
1902
1907
1910
1913
1918
1920
1923
1926
1929
1937
1945
1948
1953
1957
1960
1969
1973
1980
1981
1990
2001
2007
690
730
784
834
886
987
1047
1087
1117
1152
1194
1233
1289
1321
1357
1424
1441
1481
1522
1556
1649
1742
1787
1843
1892
1924
2040
2087
2161
2179
2287
2415
2496
9
9
5
9
9
6
4
6
4
5
5
9
7
5
8
9
6
5
5
9
6
5
8
8
4
6
9
9
6
5
9
6
9
5
December
December
June
December
December
March
May
April
May
June
June
December
August
June
January
December
March
July
July
November
March
June
October
October
May
April
February
November
March
July
November
March
November
June
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
12
12
6
12
12
3
5
4
5
6
6
12
8
6
1
12
3
7
7
11
3
6
10
10
5
4
2
11
3
7
11
3
11
6
1854
1858
1861
1867
1870
1879
1885
1888
1891
1894
1897
1900
1904
1908
1912
1914
1919
1921
1924
1927
1933
1938
1945
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
1975
1980
1982
1991
2001
2009
660
708
738
816
852
951
1025
1060
1097
1134
1170
1212
1256
1302
1345
1380
1431
1459
1495
1535
1599
1662
1750
1798
1853
1900
1934
2051
2103
2167
2195
2295
2423
2514

Purchase answer to see full
attachment

GradeAcers
Calculate your paper price
Pages (550 words)
Approximate price: -

Why Work with Us

Top Quality and Well-Researched Papers

We always make sure that writers follow all your instructions precisely. You can choose your academic level: high school, college/university or professional, and we will assign a writer who has a respective degree.

Professional and Experienced Academic Writers

We have a team of professional writers with experience in academic and business writing. Many are native speakers and able to perform any task for which you need help.

Free Unlimited Revisions

If you think we missed something, send your order for a free revision. You have 10 days to submit the order for review after you have received the final document. You can do this yourself after logging into your personal account or by contacting our support.

Prompt Delivery and 100% Money-Back-Guarantee

All papers are always delivered on time. In case we need more time to master your paper, we may contact you regarding the deadline extension. In case you cannot provide us with more time, a 100% refund is guaranteed.

Original & Confidential

We use several writing tools checks to ensure that all documents you receive are free from plagiarism. Our editors carefully review all quotations in the text. We also promise maximum confidentiality in all of our services.

24/7 Customer Support

Our support agents are available 24 hours a day 7 days a week and committed to providing you with the best customer experience. Get in touch whenever you need any assistance.

Try it now!

Calculate the price of your order

Total price:
$0.00

How it works?

Follow these simple steps to get your paper done

Place your order

Fill in the order form and provide all details of your assignment.

Proceed with the payment

Choose the payment system that suits you most.

Receive the final file

Once your paper is ready, we will email it to you.

Our Services

No need to work on your paper at night. Sleep tight, we will cover your back. We offer all kinds of writing services.

Essays

Essay Writing Service

No matter what kind of academic paper you need and how urgent you need it, you are welcome to choose your academic level and the type of your paper at an affordable price. We take care of all your paper needs and give a 24/7 customer care support system.

Admissions

Admission Essays & Business Writing Help

An admission essay is an essay or other written statement by a candidate, often a potential student enrolling in a college, university, or graduate school. You can be rest assurred that through our service we will write the best admission essay for you.

Reviews

Editing Support

Our academic writers and editors make the necessary changes to your paper so that it is polished. We also format your document by correctly quoting the sources and creating reference lists in the formats APA, Harvard, MLA, Chicago / Turabian.

Reviews

Revision Support

If you think your paper could be improved, you can request a review. In this case, your paper will be checked by the writer or assigned to an editor. You can use this option as many times as you see fit. This is free because we want you to be completely satisfied with the service offered.

Order your essay today and save 15% with the discount code DISCOUNT15