John believed the price at harvest would best beapproximated by a normal distribution with a meanof $0.2079 per pound and a standard deviation of$0.0247 per pound. Forward contracts were onlyavailable in increments of 100 tons, and the current forward rate was $0.2079 per pound. In the past, Johnhad assumed that he could predict with certainty whathis land would produce, and he had usually hedgedroughly half that amount. John sometimes wondered ifthat was the best policy for how much to hedge, givenhis forecast of what his farm would produce.
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